Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Mark Cuban on DIVX

I asked Mark Cuban today about what he thought about DIVX, here's a roughly edited email transcript. I didn't ask him for permission but I figured that there's nothing controversial about his opinion so I've left his words verbatim:

Hey Mark,
I was wondering what your take was on DIVX and their business model. They seem to be the only guys out there making real revenue/profit on both the technology, carriage and content. The CEO Jordan used to be with InterVu and was one of the guys who was part of the team that tried to buy us out back in the day. When he started DIVX he wanted me to merge with him in an unnamed business. I never did and still don't regret it. InterVu were a bunch of clowns but this guy seems to have his ducks in order.
Curious about your take on Joost as well. Seems to me that Joost, slingmedia, divx and torrents are the current big undertow that will show up as a tidal wave on the mainstream radar soon enough when it claws double digit revenue out of their pockets.
Just a thought for an interesting blog post.
Take it easy,

Basically all the companies you mention as having a big undertow, will be small roleplayers.
Internet video doesn't have a way to get in the family room with out a lot of work and expense. Until that changes and bandwidth gets about 25mbs, they are niches

I think you're right about both points but I am not sure what you consider the timing to be, I am convinced that the XBOX, Apple TV & Media center extenders built into new TVs are 2-5 years from critical mass and the usable 25Mbps is probably 4-10yrs out for HD and 2-5 years out for SD.

So I thought about what he said for a while and figured that there were 2 possible outcomes:

1) Licensing, DRM, shit bandwidth and crappy devices will make internet video a novelty until the 15 year old gootubers get their own homes in 10 years

2) Something (Joost/XBOX/Apple) will catch on fire quick and get adopted by 100 million people in their living rooms within 3 years

What do you think?

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